C.<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://mastodon.nz/@nonlinear" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@<span>nonlinear</span></a></span> <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://bsky.brid.gy/r/https://bsky.app/profile/sarahjeong.bsky.social" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@<span>sarahjeong.bsky.social</span></a></span> </p><p>Yes, SpaceX will eventually have a lives-lost incident, and it will be ugly. How the market / investors take it I have no prediction for.</p><p>But NASA has had several of those types of accidents over the years, so the waterfall / perfection model isn't immune to them, either. The two shuttle losses were due to bureaucracy that defeated NASA's safety culture, and the Apollo 1 debacle showed that their vaunted safety and technical reviews actually could miss something very important - several things simultaneously, in fact.</p><p>I think it's unfair to compare SpaceX's current test-to-failure of Super Heavy and Starship to human-rated missions from anyone. They did the same test-to-failure rapid development with Falcon 9 and Cargo Dragon, leading to Crew Dragon, and they haven't had a life-lost incident yet. They're not deliberately testing-to-failure with humans on board.</p><p><a href="https://mindly.social/tags/Apollo1" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Apollo1</span></a> <a href="https://mindly.social/tags/Shuttle" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Shuttle</span></a> <a href="https://mindly.social/tags/Columbia" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Columbia</span></a> <a href="https://mindly.social/tags/Challenger" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Challenger</span></a> <a href="https://mindly.social/tags/NASA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>NASA</span></a> <a href="https://mindly.social/tags/fatality" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>fatality</span></a> <a href="https://mindly.social/tags/astronaut" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>astronaut</span></a></p>