Daniel Dvorkin<p>A friend points out that the success of the <a href="https://qoto.org/tags/Ukrainian" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Ukrainian</span></a> <a href="https://qoto.org/tags/drone" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>drone</span></a> <a href="https://qoto.org/tags/attack" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>attack</span></a> on <a href="https://qoto.org/tags/Russian" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Russian</span></a> <a href="https://qoto.org/tags/airfields" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>airfields</span></a> has to have the US and other large <a href="https://qoto.org/tags/defense" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>defense</span></a> <a href="https://qoto.org/tags/industries" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>industries</span></a> rather jittery. All those big high-tech megabucks systems ... something something ten-rupee jezail.</p><p>My suspicion is that the age of drone supremacy will be short-lived: as long as they rely on human <a href="https://qoto.org/tags/pilots" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>pilots</span></a> on the ground, their <a href="https://qoto.org/tags/signals" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>signals</span></a> can be jammed, traced, or hacked. Best-case scenario, the drones become flying bricks. Middle-case, the ground control facilities become <a href="https://qoto.org/tags/artillery" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>artillery</span></a> targets. Worst-case, the drones are turned against their erstwhile controllers.</p><p>Those systems already exist in embryonic form—note that <a href="https://qoto.org/tags/Ukraine" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Ukraine</span></a> had to rely on old-fashioned <a href="https://qoto.org/tags/infiltration" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>infiltration</span></a> to get close enough for the strikes to work. You can bet every major <a href="https://qoto.org/tags/military" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>military</span></a> power on the planet is already putting a lot of money into R&D for much more sophisticated approaches. Of course the alternative is autonomous drones, taking off with a set of mission parameters and the same decision-making authority as pilots in crewed <a href="https://qoto.org/tags/aircraft" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>aircraft</span></a>. That, uh, presents its own set of problems.</p><p>With all this said, drones are going to be a big *part* of everyone's arsenal going forward, and yeah, it's going to disrupt current <a href="https://qoto.org/tags/doctrine" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>doctrine</span></a> considerably. Assuming Ukraine survives the war, which I'm increasingly confident it will, veterans will be in great demand as consultants—at least in smart countries. I wonder if the US will be one of those.</p>