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anlomedad<a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/HungaTonga" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#HungaTonga</a> was on the top of my list of suspects for the bananas year 2023. <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Jucker" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Jucker</a> et al's preprint on modelling the effect on <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#weather</a> was my go-to for months. It has been peer-reviewed and published by now 🔒 <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/aop/JCLI-D-23-0437.1/JCLI-D-23-0437.1.xml" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/aop/JCLI-D-23-0437.1/JCLI-D-23-0437.1.xml</a> or : <a href="https://d197for5662m48.cloudfront.net/documents/publicationstatus/180012/preprint_pdf/ebd8969efba54570a5944dadba59168c.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://d197for5662m48.cloudfront.net/documents/publicationstatus/180012/preprint_pdf/ebd8969efba54570a5944dadba59168c.pdf</a>It just now occurred to me: their model comparison only flags *significant* changes over a planet without water injection into the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/stratosphere" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#stratosphere</a>. And what's more: in year1 after the eruption, which is 2023, only the jet stream showed significant changes. Not temperature. This realisation kinda proves to me that HungaTonga wasn't significant at all wrt temperature in 2023.Wanting to double-check my realisation with the author on Twix, I found instead his tweet with his writeup in TheConversation💃 <a href="https://theconversation.com/tongas-volcanic-eruption-could-cause-unusual-weather-for-the-rest-of-the-decade-new-study-shows-231074" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://theconversation.com/tongas-volcanic-eruption-could-cause-unusual-weather-for-the-rest-of-the-decade-new-study-shows-231074</a> " This means that the incredibly high temperatures we have measured for about a year now cannot be attributed to the Hunga Tonga eruption." 💃 But like I suspected: the ultra-wet winter with damages in infrastructure, soil and crops in Western Europe was due to HungaTonga by way of its effect on the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/jetstream" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#jetstream</a>. And it will be repeated: "For the northern half of Australia, our model predicts colder and wetter than usual winters up to about 2029. For North America, it predicts warmer than usual winters, while for Scandinavia, it again predicts colder than usual winters."... One more thing:::: Sadly, the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Arctic" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Arctic</a> in year 3 to year 7 is modelled to warm by 0.5°C due to HungaTonga. Put that on top of the potentially permanent bananas heating in 2023 and 2024... then sea ice will shrink, albedo lost, fresh water dilute the AMOC, polar bears lose their cups. And the temperature gradient between Arctic and equator will be less. Which probably leads to stalling jetstream wave patterns. Stalling wave patterns spell heat and drought (and crazy omega blockings with heavy rain events). All of which makes crop loss likely in the bread baskets USA, Europe, Ukraine, Russia. Like in 2018. But 5 years in a row... OMG...fck

ZüriTodayMartin <a href="https://swiss.social/tags/Jucker" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Jucker</a> von der Jucker <a href="https://swiss.social/tags/Farm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Farm</a> wirft der <a href="https://swiss.social/tags/Migros" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Migros</a> vor, das eigene <a href="https://swiss.social/tags/Nachhaltigkeitsprogramm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Nachhaltigkeitsprogramm</a> zu zerstören.<a href="https://www.zueritoday.ch/zuerich/top-aktionen-aus-aller-welt-bringen-juckerfarm-besitzer-in-rage-149461482" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.zueritoday.ch/zuerich/top-aktionen-aus-aller-welt-bringen-juckerfarm-besitzer-in-rage-149461482</a><a href="https://swiss.social/tags/Z%C3%BCriToday" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ZüriToday</a> <a href="https://swiss.social/tags/JuckerFarm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#JuckerFarm</a> <a href="https://swiss.social/tags/Regional" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Regional</a> <a href="https://swiss.social/tags/Nachhaltig" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Nachhaltig</a> <a href="https://swiss.social/tags/Nachhaltigkeit" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Nachhaltigkeit</a> <a href="https://swiss.social/tags/Lebensmittel" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Lebensmittel</a>

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