Darrin Carlson<p>This weather model is predicting smoldering rain over the weekend. </p><p><a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Hawaii" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Hawaii</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/weathermodels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weathermodels</span></a></p>
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#Weathermodels
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Geraldo 🌎<p>Scientists improve the accuracy of weather and climate models 👇</p><p><a href="https://phys.org/news/2023-03-scientists-accuracy-weather-climate.html" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">phys.org/news/2023-03-scientis</span><span class="invisible">ts-accuracy-weather-climate.html</span></a></p><p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/WeatherModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WeatherModels</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/ClimateModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateModels</span></a></p>
Adrian Leyser<p>Interesting feature in the ICON model on Thursday night over the North Sea. It looks like the model simulates a tropical-like warm seclusion, a polar low. It is a mesoscale phenomenon, characterized by a warm, nearly cloud-free core and spirals of high-level convection around it. <br><span class="h-card"><a href="https://meteo.social/@kachelmannwetter" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>kachelmannwetter</span></a></span> </p><p><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Weather</span></a><br><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Synoptic" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Synoptic</span></a><br><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Meteorology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Meteorology</span></a><br><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/WeatherModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WeatherModels</span></a></p>
Adrian Leyser<p>Not only the IFS from ECMWF expects this cold air outbreak, but also the ICON model. Furthermore, the <a href="https://meteo.social/tags/WeatherModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WeatherModels</span></a> indicate partly heavy <a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Snowfall" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Snowfall</span></a> in <a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Ukraine" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Ukraine</span></a>. One can only hope that appropriate preparations will be made.</p>
Adrian Leyser<p>This will be an exceptionally warm turn of the year in parts of western and central <a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Europe" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Europe</span></a>. The Extreme Forecast Index of the IFS is already going through the roof. The statistical post-processed MOS-MIX of the <span class="h-card"><a href="https://social.bund.de/@DeutscherWetterdienst" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>DeutscherWetterdienst</span></a></span> indicates, for example, maximum <a href="https://meteo.social/tags/temperatures" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>temperatures</span></a> of 18 to 19 degrees for the Upper Rhine, both for <a href="https://meteo.social/tags/NewYearsEve" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NewYearsEve</span></a> and for <a href="https://meteo.social/tags/NewYearsDay" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NewYearsDay</span></a>. For this region, it would be the warmest New Year's Eve ever. </p><p><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Weather</span></a> <br><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Forecast" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Forecast</span></a> <br><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/WeatherModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WeatherModels</span></a> <br><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Silvester" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Silvester</span></a></p>
Adrian Leyser<p>The <a href="https://meteo.social/tags/ArcticBlast" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ArcticBlast</span></a> over <a href="https://meteo.social/tags/NorthAmerica" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NorthAmerica</span></a> is truly extreme. At the 850-hPa level, we are in the range of the 0.5% percentile of the climate mean, if you look at the GFS analysis. At the 2m <a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Temperature" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Temperature</span></a>, the IFS forecasts a -6 to -10 degree deviation from 1% (!) percentile for today (12Z). These are anomalies we never see in Europe and which I have rarely seen for North America. </p><p>arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/models<br><a href="https://www.ecmwf.int/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="">ecmwf.int/</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p><p><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Weather</span></a> <br><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/WeatherExtremes" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WeatherExtremes</span></a><br><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/ArcticOutbreak" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ArcticOutbreak</span></a> <br><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/WeatherModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WeatherModels</span></a></p>
💧🌏 Greg Cocks<p>The Freezing Snowy Nightmare Before Christmas [USA]<br />--<br /><a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150747/the-freezing-snowy-nightmare-before-christmas" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">earthobservatory.nasa.gov/imag</span><span class="invisible">es/150747/the-freezing-snowy-nightmare-before-christmas</span></a> <br />--<br />“The wind chill forecast features some of the most extreme values you will ever see” — National Weather Service (<span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://techhub.social/@nws" class="u-url mention">@<span>nws</span></a></span>) office of Cheyenne<br /><a href="https://techhub.social/tags/GIS" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>GIS</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/spatial" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>spatial</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/mapping" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>mapping</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/maps" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>maps</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/remotesensing" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>remotesensing</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/satellite" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>satellite</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/GEOS" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>GEOS</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/earthscience" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>earthscience</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/model" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>model</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/modeling" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>modeling</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>weather</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/prediction" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>prediction</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/cold" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>cold</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/winter" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>winter</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/arctic" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>arctic</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/arcticblast" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>arcticblast</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/publicsafety" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>publicsafety</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/publichealth" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>publichealth</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/blizzard" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>blizzard</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/extremeweather" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>extremeweather</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/extemecold" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>extemecold</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/cowx" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>cowx</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/wx" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>wx</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/weathermodels" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#<span>weathermodels</span></a><br /><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://techhub.social/@nasa" class="u-url mention">@<span>nasa</span></a></span> <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://techhub.social/@nws" class="u-url mention">@<span>nws</span></a></span></p>
Adrian Leyser<p>How uncertain can the medium-term <a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Weather</span></a> trend be? GFS and IFS with diametrical geopotential and temperature pattern after the Christmas holidays over <a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Europe" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Europe</span></a>. </p><p>Charts: <a href="http://wxcharts.com/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">http://</span><span class="">wxcharts.com/</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p><p><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/SynopticMeteorology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SynopticMeteorology</span></a> <br><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Forecast" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Forecast</span></a> <br><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/WeatherModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WeatherModels</span></a></p>
Adrian Leyser<p>As a result, the <a href="https://meteo.social/tags/IFS" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>IFS</span></a> of the <a href="https://meteo.social/tags/ECMWF" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ECMWF</span></a> in Reading in particular expects a significant increase in <a href="https://meteo.social/tags/snow" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>snow</span></a> depth and coverage within the next 10 days.</p><p><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/WeatherModels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WeatherModels</span></a><br><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/WinterWeather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WinterWeather</span></a></p>
Adrian Leyser<p>The vertical resolution increase primarily affects the upper troposphere and stratosphere because this turned out to maximize the benefit for the forecast quality. <br>Likewise, the horizontal resolution upgrade is restricted to the EPS because it currently operates in a resolution range where an increase immediately results in a better forecast quality, whereas the potential benefit in the deterministic system would be much smaller.</p><p><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Weathermodels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Weathermodels</span></a><br><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Modelling" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Modelling</span></a> <br><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Meteorology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Meteorology</span></a></p><p>2/2</p>
Adrian Leyser<p>Today: Resolution upgrade for the @deutscherwetterdienst <a href="https://meteo.social/tags/ICON" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ICON</span></a> model! </p><p>ICON-EPS: 40 km -> 26 km (horizontal)<br>ICON-EU-EPS: 20 km -> 13 km (horizontal)<br>ICON: 90 layers -> 120 layers (vertical)<br>ICON-EU: 60 layers -> 74 layers (vertical)</p><p><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Weathermodels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Weathermodels</span></a><br><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Meteorology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Meteorology</span></a><br><a href="https://meteo.social/tags/Weatherforecast" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Weatherforecast</span></a></p><p>1/2</p>
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