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#WeatherForecast

19 posts15 participants3 posts today

Climate modelling and weather forecasts – low 2 by 2 degrees grid resolution versus higher resolution.

Daniel Swain's Office Hour about the Texas #FlashFlood included much explanations how weather models work nowadays. youtube.com/live/OJEddh6dhrU
In this excerpt, (at 1hr:9min) he shows the accumulated amount of rain as predicted by various weather models, high resolution ones, and what can be called global weather forecast models in much lower grid resolution.

He emphasizes that AI models did the worst in predicting the exceptional event on July 4.

Now, this weather event involved convective activity which is apparently something that global models don't have detailed-enough formulae for. As Daniel says, it's expected that their rain amounts won't depict what's happening on the ground.

But their low resolution is also "to blame".
in June, Brunner et al published a comparison between normal CMIP6 2x2° climate models and how many future temperature extremes (#heatwave and maximum °C) can be teased out from them – which is important information for us, for city planners and insurance companies and the like – 
versus how many extremes two very fine-grained climate models find in their 9 to 15km grid. Spoiler: plenty more.
dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/a "A global perspective on the spatial representation of climate extremes from km-scale models"

WR WITH STROLL WALKING TOURS

This year, Canadians are pivoting their travel plans to enjoy and explore more of the True North strong and free.  

In Waterloo Region, the perfect activity for local exploration is spending an afternoon with Stroll Walking Tours.  

Juanita Metzger, Stroll Walking Tours owner and local advocate extraordinaire, says it best.   

“A walking tour in your home city is a way to travel without travelling. It’s affordable, it’s accessible, it’s healthy, it’s a great way to connect with your community, and it’s a heckuva lot of fun,” Metzger said.  

A female-owned, Rainbow Registered company, Stroll Walking Tours was created with the goal of connecting visitors and locals alike to Kitchener, Waterloo, Cambridge and St. Jacobs.   

She would know. In 2024 alone, Strollers walked 525 kilometres in pursuit of ghost stories, discovering the best eats and uncovering the region’s long forgotten secrets. In fact, most of the 1,135 curious individuals on their tours have been locals looking to learn more about where they live.   

Since the inaugural stroll in the summer of 2020, Metzger has heel-toed her way through a pair of shoes each year. Her current selection are a dark blue pair of Hokas, though she insists anything will do as long as you’re comfortable.  

There are over 27 exciting, informative, and delicious tours that reveal Waterloo Region’s intriguing layers.  

The tours cover everything from public street art, architecture, food spots, historic figures and events, as well as thrifting and vintage tours.  

Local guides who often live in the areas they are sharing, lead tour groups of six to 20 people.  

Stroll Walking Tour guides are also the researchers and developers behind each tour.  

These multi-talented individuals have a range of lived experience, from history majors and authors to high school teachers, photographers, and board members of community organizations.  

Their enthusiasm for storytelling and welcoming hospitality set the stage for an engaging experience.  

Stroll Walking Tours are available to private and public groups. Regardless of the weather forecast, save for inclement weather advisories and lightning, they run, so come prepared with appropriate clothing and hydration.   

They have hosted private groups for everything from office bonding, to university and high school classes, birthday celebrations, family reunions, and more. Public tours occur every spring and fall, and more regularly in St. Jacobs.   

Tours vary in length between 60 to 90 minutes and run from 1.5 to 3 kilometres in distance. Each tour is created with accessibility in mind.   

Another one of Stroll’s aims is going beyond the familiar German, Mennonite and Euro-centric stories of the area.  

There is the 1918 pandemic tour, cemetery tours, Black history tours and a social service history tour, among many others.  

This summer, three new tours have been added: Black History in Galt, Architecture in Uptown Waterloo and Historic Galt.   

The first new public tour is Historic Galt on June 28.  

Led by Michael Krupp, a local with a keen interest in history, it begins with the area’s early days as Shade’s Mills, dives into the significance of the Grand River, and tells the stories of influential individuals like Dickson, Shade, Ainslie and Dumfries.  

On July 5, arts and culture worker Karl Kessler will lead the Street Side Waterloo tour that will dig into Uptown Waterloo’s unique architecture. Strollers will learn about the three buildings that received the Governor General’s Medal in Architecture and discuss those that are no longer a part of the streetscape.  

The Black History in Galt tour will run in August, with a date soon to be set.  

Dawn Gill, a highly engaged community member in local politics and advocacy work, is the passionate guide who will bring to life the stories of the area’s Black residents during the mid-to-late-1800s, like the Black Presence in Berlin tour.   

Currently the only tour the runs on a weekly basis is the Historic St. Jacobs tour. It operates every Thursday and Sunday afternoon throughout the summer.  

There are three upcoming tours focused on women. Stroll is still in the research stage so make sure to subscribe to their newsletter and follow their Instagram account for all the exciting news to come.  

“It’s time we also focus on women’s history. It’s been a long dream to have women’s history tours,” Metzger said.   

For more information, visit @strollwalkingtours on Instagram.