I evaluated the accuracy of my predictions for the US Senate elections, and the accuracy of 538's polling averages for those races.
https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2025/07/grading-my-2024-senate-predictions.html
10/x

I evaluated the accuracy of my predictions for the US Senate elections, and the accuracy of 538's polling averages for those races.
https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2025/07/grading-my-2024-senate-predictions.html
10/x
Well, only billionaires and the most delusional 25% of the country think the Big Fugly Bill will do anything to help them, so, progress!
Turns out most of us actually DO want "money for health and education, not for #ICE and deportation!" as the protest chant goes.
The GOP has been trying to galvanize Americans against one specific enemy in its quest for power.
They tried trans kids, sports players, women, immigrants, diverse people, the elderly, and so many others.
They finally found one enemy of the American way of life and values that everyone has united in thinking is a menace:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/cnn-data-guru-harry-enten-gobsmacked-by-brutal-epstein-poll-for-trump/
US pollster Stanley Greenberg once made this point to Canadian fellow pollster Frank Graves.
In short, don't get too wrapped up in ideology or worry about detailed position papers. People will ultimately vote the way their feelings tell them to vote. Time spent on getting voters to feel a certain way will pay off.
The early 538 Senate polling averages were the least accurate in Florida, Nevada, Nebraska, and Ohio.
Republican candidates outperformed all four of these polling averages by more than 5%.
37/x
The early 538 Senate polling averages predicted the correct winner in 9 of the 11 contests. The early averages predicted incorrect Senate winners in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
35/x
The following table compares these early 538 Senate polling averages to the final results.
33/x
I published a table of 538’s polling averages for Senate races in "Nebraska may determine Senate Control,” which I published on Oct. 16.
Therefore, these polling averages are from 20 days before the election.
https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2024/10/nebraska-may-determine-senate-control.html
32/x
This ongoing thread, which examines the accuracy of 2024 US Senate polling, can be read as an article on my blog, Meticulous Musings.
https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2025/07/grading-my-2024-senate-predictions.html
29/x
538’s Senate Forecast predicted Republicans would control 52 seats after the election.
Their forecast was off by only one seat.
26/x
The second table, which shows the same information, is organized by 538’s final polling averages, with elections they predicted would be the closest, listed first.
18/x
The next two tables compare 538’s final polling averages for the 2024 US Senate races to the actual margins in those races.
The first table is organized by the actual margin, with the closest races listed first.
17/x
Debt, taxes or cuts: NATO’s 5 percent solution https://www.byteseu.com/1161905/ #American #BrandSafety #Budget #Defense #DefenseSpending #DonaldTrump #DonaldJTrump #economy #Europe #ExecutiveBranch #Military #national #NATO #Polling #Taxes #trump
Donald Trump Voters Are Losing Faith With Trump
Once the cornerstone of his political strength, President Donald Trump‘s base is showing signs of erosion. The latest…
#Europe #UnitedStates #Approvalrating #DonaldTrump #Iran #Israel #polling #polls #POTUS #presidentdonaldtrump #presidentoftheUnitedStates #presidenttrump #Republicans #trump #trumpapprovalrating
https://www.europesays.com/2203084/
Donald Trump Voters Are Losing Faith With Trump
Once the cornerstone of his political strength, President Donald Trump‘s base is showing signs of erosion. The latest…
#UnitedStates #US #USA #Approvalrating #DonaldTrump #Iran #Israel #polling #polls #POTUS #presidentdonaldtrump #presidentoftheUnitedStates #presidenttrump #Republicans #trump #trumpapprovalrating
https://www.europesays.com/2203084/
https://www.europesays.com/2203084/ Donald Trump Voters Are Losing Faith With Trump #ApprovalRating #DonaldTrump #Iran #Israel #polling #polls #POTUS #PresidentDonaldTrump #PresidentOfTheUnitedStates #PresidentTrump #Republicans #trump #TrumpApprovalRating
#Mastodon polls are nice, but we'd like to use something more formal. Does anyone have an idea about a #polling service or so?
#Disroot apparently used to have one, but it no longer exists as far as we can tell. #Google Forms, well...you can fill in the details. There is #StrawPoll that we're aware of too. Any thoughts?
Fascinating poll. There's been a few recently with similar toplines showing #Reform are definitely defeatable by #Labour.
Labour still in front on every policy area but immigration and crime, ahead among those in employment, and support has shot up among those aged 25-34.
All Reform support is surprising, but it's curious seeing them lead among those out of work due to health/disability — by a 25 point margin.
#UKPolitics #UKPol #poll #polling
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/labour-reform-poll-starmer-benefits-3775026
Who the frack did they poll for this data.
I can tell you that ZERO people I know would be OK with this.
https://apnews.com/article/poll-religion-public-schools-survey-05e72bff5cb0c1e64bf0ff873af03eb4
Unrepresentative polls, restricted participation, limited speaking time ignore #poverty among #elderly - "giving in to pressure from employers is jeopardising the balance of #Luxembourg’s social model"
https://delano.lu/article/cgfp-union-raises-its-voice-in-front-of-the-chamber-of-deputies