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Greg Cocks @GregCocks@techhub.socialOn The Uncertain Intensity Estimate Of The 1859 Carrington Storm
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https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2024015 <-- shared paper
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event <-- background on the Carrington Event
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["The big one", if it happened today we would be right royally %^#$& (excuse my pretend language 
), we are nowhere close to being hardened, etc; my other ½ is a space weather scientist, until I knew her I was not fully aware of all the risks and hazards associated with space weather]
#GIS #spatial #mapping #Magneticstorm #spaceweather #historicalevent #statisticalanalysis #spatialanalysis #geostatistics #model #modeling #geomagneticstorm #geomagnetism #solar #sun #risk #hazard #infrastructure #CME #coronalmassejection #solarflare #blackouts #humanimpacts #electricpowergrid #CarringtonEvent #numericmodel #aurora #usgs #space #geophysics #naturalhazards #extremeevents
Not if, when. 
@MalthusJohn Hopefully there is enough time for the space weather & other scientists at NOAA and so on to continue to be funded and getting even better understanding of the risk/hazard, including geopotential on the ground - and the pollies, infrastructure managers, etc to get things all hardened up!
Hate to sound cynical, but I bet it will take a modern occurrence of a great #storm in order to be taken seriously.
It's like how many people who've never had their home/car robbed don't have /use alarms vs the opposite.
That said, we do have quite a lot of info to give us a decent warning. IIRC, it takes 3 days at average #solar wind speed for disturbances to hit earth (given they're geo-effective too). Of course, a huge storm would have more power, arriving in 1/3 of the time, but also have precursors (only space based object managers will act on those though).
@GregCocks Well it's been an interesting summer on HF radio Greg. We've had a few fartulations from ye old sol which silenced the amateur bands. There's been some chatter in the past 5 years about LORAN returning as a secondary to GPS and this past weekend we saw 10m (28Mhz) wake up and give us coast to coast propagation like in the 90's. Things are afoot for the tuned in and we are definitely watching the sun.
@queencitynerd I know on my site that FEMA still maintains lots of HAM radio antennas on various bands, for emergency communication in case the fancy electronics really get fried...
@GregCocks Yeah, I always assume we're probably really in trouble if you're counting on us in Amateur Radio. I was a RACES operator, (Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Service) for Tioga Co. & Warren Co. NY for a while. We took it pretty seriously and drilled every week. We were the service that handled government to government communications in emergency. I was a relay station for Otsego Co. NY during 9/11 too. However mileage varied wildly between groups and the NYS level RACES were all business, vs the Penn. State level RACES were anything but serious about it at least back in the mid 2000's. ARES is active here in Chemung Co. Amateur Radio Emergency Service and that's the people to people level of coms. SkyWarn too, but they're a little role crazy and it's hard to find that balance. We're definitely still out and about and some County EOC's see us as an asset and give some resources and others refuse to see us at all. Bst 73! DE N2QFD AR SK ..
@queencitynerd I am VERY pleased to hear that, for the emergency functionality and for the idea of HAM overall...