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#enso

2 posts2 participants0 posts today
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Alberniweather ☔️ ☀️ ❄️ 🌬️

Latest ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) forecast is out. The verdict is that the minor La Niña that existed the past few months is now gone. We are in “Neutral" conditions for the forseeable future, likely all the way to Fall and maybe next Winter.

Better chance of another La Niña next winter than El Niño, but the best chance is for Neutral conditions.

cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana

A bar graph shows percent chance on the Y axis and three month grouped seasons on the bottom starting with MAM (“March April May”) and ending with NDJ (“November December January”) Neutral is in grey and starts very near 100% in the first period and them gradually drops to about 40% in the final period. La Niña in Blue and El Niño in red start at or near zero in the first period and gradual move to 35% for La Niña and 20% for El Niño by the end of the graph. Text: Official NOAA CPC ENSO Probabilities (issued April 2025) based on -0.5%+0.5°C thresholds in ERSSTv5 Niño-3.4 index Figure 7. Official ENSO probabilities for the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature index (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W). Figure updated 10 April 2025.
#LaNiña#ElNiño#ENSO
Public
Denise Gutzmer

The Growing Impact of ENSO on U.S. Extreme Drought and Flood Events

Extreme hydroclimate events, such as droughts, floods, and heavy rainfall, account for a substantial portion of weather-related disasters in the United States, leading to significant socio-economic losses involving agriculture, water resources, and public health, among others.

#ENSO #drought #flood #weather

aoml.noaa.gov/the-growing-impa

NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory · The Growing Impact of ENSO on U.S. Extreme Drought and Flood EventsExtreme hydroclimate events, such as droughts, floods, and heavy rainfall, account for a substantial portion of weather-related disasters in the US..
Public
Luckyetvous

#newsclimat #urgenceclimatique #climat

Mes p'tits Mastoufoux du soir,
Un point #sst et #enso

"" La probabilité de retour à des conditions dites « neutres (ne dénotant ni un épisode El Niño ni un épisode La Niña) s’élève à 60 % pour la période de mars à mai » et « atteint 70 % pour la période d’avril à juin ». "

sudouest.fr/environnement/clim

""Oceans off Australia's west remain much warmer than average while those in the north have cooled; the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole remain neutral ""

Retour à des conditions neutres pour l'Enso , sans jamais avoir été totalement en La Nina. L'épisode fût très bref en janvier à - 0,83° .

GIF
Public *
anlomedad

edit: added another image.
aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.c

Amazing!
And #openaccess °
Also, the references in the paper are a treasure trove.

20,000 days in the life of a clam shell 10 mio years ago in the Indonesian Throughway shows heavy rain events, seasons and what the authors say is a proto- #ENSO cyclicality, dominated by #LaNina .
sciencedirect.com/science/arti

When you hear "dominated by La Nina", is your mind jumping to AMOC slowdown and tipping? Mine does.

The longterm climate records stored in this clam species can indeed show early warning signals for AMOC's tipping behaviour. In this paper, Arellano-Nava and D.J. Reynolds et al 2024 look at up to 500 year old (!) clams from the Northern Atlantic, document the approach for finding Early Warning Signals, and see a slowdown since 1750 aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.c

Light slowdown since 1750 was already visible in Thornalley's #AMOC reconstruction from 2018. He used sortable silt grain sizes near Iceland and near the Canadian coast .
So a different proxy showing the same slowdown.
I took the liberty to superimpose Thornalley's and also Rahmstorf's AMOC reconstruction over vanWesten's AMOC in their freshwater experiment to show the striking similarity, see picture 3.

But a gradual, even slowdown isn't an actual Early Warning Signal for tipping behaviour where
"...it flickers, then it tips...".

For AMOC's tipping behaviour, van Westen's team last year identified various Atlantic locations in various depths, none are in the classical research locations in the Northern North Atlantic ! Particularly not in the #ColdBlob... See the two map images from the supplement with the AMOC schematic by Chidichimo et al 2023.
It's still only a preprint tho, first author Emma Smolders arxiv.org/pdf/2406.11738

If I understand it correctly, the clam species lives on continental shelves in shallow-ish waters, not in the ocean abyss. So most locations Smolders et al identified are probably not good for using clams in reconstructing AMOC during the late #Holocene or in #paleoclimate. But some are, eg around the Canary Islands near Africa on 30°N, and many on the shelf along South America.
Especially important because the monitoring arrays (dashed lines in Chidichimo's schematic) have only been installed very recently. But clams can provide a continuous, annual to daily climate record everywhere – in shallow-ish waters.

I'm feeling actual excitement in the hope that researchers are now combing the ocean floor for these shells in the identified locations...

Map of the AMOC with its surface and deep water currents from Antarctica to the Norwegian Sea. At 5 latitudes, dashed white lines indicate installed monitoring arrays. Next to it are maps from the preprint for locations where Early Warning Signals were found in temperature trends. Shallow water depths on continental shelves are a corridor on 30°N near Africa, and some on Southern Africa's and South America's shelf.
Map of the AMOC with its surface and deep water currents from Antarctica to the Norwegian Sea. At 5 latitudes, dashed white lines indicate installed monitoring arrays. Next to it are maps from the preprint for locations where Early Warning Signals were found in salinity trends at various depths. Far fewer locations are suitable for observing salinity changes than for temperature changes. For using clams, locations are the area near Africa on 30°N and Argentina .
Figure from van Westen et al 2024 showing AMOC strength at 26°N in their freshwater experiment. Superimposed on it are reconstructions by Thornalley 2018 and Rahmstorf 2015. VanWesten's AMOC shows a gradual decline starting in experiment year 1500 and a serious decline from experiment year 1750. Thornalley's AMOC slows down slowly from year AD 1700 on and drops off a cliff in year 1830. Rahmstorf's AMOC reconstruction from the Cold Blob slides down 1850ff and drops off a cliff in 1970, recovering in 1994.
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